Fusion voting
Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.
Vermont › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Vermont's at-large District
FusionBalint is very likely to win: Balint wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Balint (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Malloy (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- 5in our database
Balint is very likely to win: Balint wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Balint (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Malloy (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- 5in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Becca Balint
Incumbent U.S. representative (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $814.5K
- Spent
- $678.6K
- Cash on hand
- $616.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Gerald Malloy
Retired military officer, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $58.3K
- From individuals
- $36.5K
- Spent
- $38.6K
- Cash on hand
- $19.7K
Money: FEC, through Jul 23, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.42 |
Polls
All 5 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Balint | Malloy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braun Research/Vermont Public | Sep 10–Sep 21 | 817 RV | 43 | 28 | D+15 | D+26.2 |
| Braun Research/Vermont Public | Sep 10–Sep 21 | 732 LV | 47 | 30 | D+17 | D+26.2 |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 835 LV | 66 | 30 | D+36 | D+37.8 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 954 LV | 63 | 25 | D+38 | D+44.5 |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 887 LV | 57 | 26 | D+31 | D+38.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
The district
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 647,106
- People per km²
- 26
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 90%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
350,616 votes · D+35.3✓ Becca Balint (D)62.3%
Mark Coester (R)29.8%
Adam Ortiz (I)5.5%
Jill "jessy" Diamondstone (G)2.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
314,900 two-party votes · D+33.7 · D+35.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.9%
Donald Trump (R)33.1%
2022
282,026 votes · D+38.5✓ Becca Balint (D)62.6%
Liam Madden (R)27.8%
Ericka Redic (L)4.5%
Matt Druzba (I)2.0%
Luke Talbot (I)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
354,826 votes · D+42.7✓ Peter Welch (D)67.3%
Miriam Berry (R)27.0%
Peter R Becker (I)2.3%
Marcia Horne (I)1.2%
Christopher Helali (COM)1.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
355,523 two-party votes · D+36.6 · D+32.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.3%
Donald Trump (R)31.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
272,450 votes · D+45.5✓ Peter Welch (D)69.2%
Anya Tynio (R)26.0%
Cris Ericson (I)3.3%
Laura S Potter (LU)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
295,334 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Peter Welch (D)89.5%
Erica Clawson (LU)10.0%
Writein (—)0.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
273,941 two-party votes · D+30.4 · D+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.2%
Donald Trump (R)34.8%