Democratic
Elaine Luria
Former U.S. representative (2019–2023)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $7.4M
- From individuals
- $5.7M
- Spent
- $5.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1.7M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 2nd District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (78%).
Luria is favored to win: Luria wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Luria (D)
78%
chance of winning
Kiggans (R)
22%
- Average margin
- D+4.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (80%).
Luria is favored to win: Luria wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Luria (D)
80%
chance of winning
Kiggans (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jen Kiggans
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $7.2M
- From individuals
- $3.9M
- Spent
- $5.3M
- Cash on hand
- $2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.52 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.52 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Luria | Kiggans | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University | Oct 1–Oct 10 | 702 LV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | D+3.4 |
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 9–Jul 13 | 700 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | R+5.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 10, 2026.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,848
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 22%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
408,702 votes · R+3.9✓ Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)50.7%
Missy Cotter Smasal (D)46.9%
Robert E. Reid, Jr. (I)2.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
407,359 two-party votes · R+0.3 · D+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Kamala Harris (D)49.9%
2022
296,989 votes · R+3.4✓ Jen A Kiggans (R)51.6%
Elaine G Luria (D)48.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
360,413 votes · D+5.9✓ Elaine G Luria (D)51.5%
Scott W Taylor (R)45.8%
David Bruce Foster (—)2.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
416,822 two-party votes · D+1.4 · R+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.7%
Donald Trump (R)49.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
273,428 votes · D+2.2✓ Elaine G Luria (D)51.0%
Scott W Taylor (R)48.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
310,640 votes · R+22.9✓ Scott W Taylor (R)61.3%
Shaun D Brown (D)38.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
401,375 two-party votes · R+6.4 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.8%