Democratic
Dan Barrios
Richardson city councilor
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $150.5K
- From individuals
- $140.9K
- Spent
- $122.6K
- Cash on hand
- $27.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 32nd District
Yarbrough is clearly favored to win: Yarbrough wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Barrios (D)
16%
chance of winning
Yarbrough (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Yarbrough is clearly favored to win: Yarbrough wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Barrios (D)
20%
chance of winning
Yarbrough (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+15
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jace Yarbrough
Attorney and candidate for Texas's 30th Senate district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $607.1K
- Spent
- $918.8K
- Cash on hand
- $292.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 779,703
- People per km²
- 133
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 48%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 14%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
232,464 votes · D+24.1✓ Julie Johnson (D)60.5%
Darrell Day (R)37.0%
Kevin A. Hale (L)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
316,216 two-party votes · R+18.2 · R+16.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Kamala Harris (D)40.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
177,490 votes · D+30.7✓ Colin Z Allred (D)65.4%
Antonio Swad (R)34.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
343,687 votes · D+6.1✓ Colin Z Allred (D)51.9%
Genevieve Collins (R)45.9%
Christy Mowrey Peterson (L)1.4%
Jason Sigmon (I)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
377,071 two-party votes · R+6.3 · R+10.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.2%
Joe Biden (D)46.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
275,620 votes · D+6.6✓ Colin Allred (D)52.3%
Pete Sessions (R)45.8%
Melina Baker (L)2.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
229,171 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Pete Sessions (R)71.1%
Ed Rankin (L)19.0%
Gary Stuard (G)10.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
273,952 two-party votes · R+16.6 · R+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.7%