Democratic
Justin Wagner
Engineer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $222.6K
- From individuals
- $221.9K
- Spent
- $107.3K
- Cash on hand
- $120.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 16th District
Kelly is very likely to win: Kelly wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Wagner (D)
1%
chance of winning
Kelly (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+16.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kelly is clearly favored to win: Kelly wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Wagner (D)
6%
chance of winning
Kelly (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+14.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Kelly
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 762,871
- People per km²
- 63
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
403,632 votes · R+27.3✓ Mike Kelly (R)63.7%
Preston Nouri (D)36.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
412,924 two-party votes · R+23.0 · R+21.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.5%
Kamala Harris (D)38.5%
2022
320,741 votes · R+18.7✓ Mike Kelly (R)59.4%
Dan Pastore (D)40.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
354,048 votes · R+18.7✓ George J Kelly Jr (R)59.3%
Kristy Marie Gnibus (D)40.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
432,730 two-party votes · R+20.3 · R+24.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Joe Biden (D)39.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
262,396 votes · R+4.3✓ George J Kelly Jr (R)51.6%
Ronald A Dinicola (D)47.3%
Ebert G Bill Beeman (L)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
313,773 votes · R+11.2✓ Lloyd K Smucker (R)53.8%
Christina Hartman (D)42.9%
Shawn Patrick House (L)3.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
371,846 two-party votes · R+22.8 · R+25.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.6%