DemocraticIncumbent
Veronica Escobar
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $551.5K
- Spent
- $889.2K
- Cash on hand
- $256.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 16th District
Escobar is very likely to win: Escobar wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Escobar (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bauman (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+33.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Escobar is very likely to win: Escobar wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Escobar (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bauman (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+22 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Adam Bauman
Business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 762,205
- People per km²
- 810
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 7%of adults
- White 11%
- Hispanic 83%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
221,049 votes · D+19.1✓ Veronica Escobar (D)59.4%
Irene Armendariz Jackson (R)40.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
226,290 two-party votes · D+16.6 · D+18.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.3%
Donald Trump (R)41.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
150,496 votes · D+26.9✓ Veronica Escobar (D)63.5%
Irene Armendariz Jackson (R)36.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
238,114 votes · D+29.4✓ Veronica Escobar (D)64.7%
Irene Armendariz-Jackson (R)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
255,585 two-party votes · D+36.6 · D+32.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.3%
Donald Trump (R)31.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
182,089 votes · D+43.4✓ Veronica Escobar (D)68.3%
Rick Seeberger (R)27.0%
Ben Mendoza (I)4.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
175,229 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Beto O'Rourke (D)85.7%
Jaime O Perez (L)10.0%
Mary L Gourdoux (G)4.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
209,323 two-party votes · D+45.9 · D+43.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)72.9%
Donald Trump (R)27.1%