Democratic
Clyde Jones Jr.
Community organizer and nominee in the May primary election
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $183.5K
- From individuals
- $174.4K
- Spent
- $163.1K
- Cash on hand
- $20.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Alabama › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama's 1st District
Carl is very likely to win: Carl wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jones (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Carl (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carl is very likely to win: Carl wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jones (D)
1%
chance of winning
Carl (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+27.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Jerry Carl
Former U.S. representative (2021–2025) and nominee in the May primary election
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $735.1K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $345.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 726,045
- People per km²
- 50
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 25%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
329,854 votes · R+57.0✓ Barry Moore (R)78.4%
Tom Holmes (D)21.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
323,503 two-party votes · R+36.3 · R+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.1%
Kamala Harris (D)31.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
168,150 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jerry L Carl (R)83.6%
Alexander M Remrey (L)15.7%
Write-In (—)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
329,075 votes · R+28.9✓ Jerry Carl (R)64.4%
James Averhart (D)35.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
337,391 two-party votes · R+31.0 · R+35.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.5%
Joe Biden (D)34.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
242,610 votes · R+26.4✓ Bradley Byrne (R)63.2%
Robert Kennedy Jr (D)36.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
215,893 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Bradley Byrne (R)96.4%
Writein (—)3.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
287,087 two-party votes · R+32.1 · R+34.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.9%