Mississippi › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Mississippi's 1st District

Kelly is very likely to win: Kelly wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Johnson (D)

<1%

chance of winning

Kelly (R)

>99%

Average margin: R+27.5
80% of outcomes: R+37 to R+19
Partisan lean: R+36
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Kelly is very likely to win: Kelly wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Johnson (D)

<1%

chance of winning

Kelly (R)

>99%

Average margin: R+29.2
80% of outcomes: R+41 to R+18
Partisan lean: R+36
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Cliff Johnson

Director of the MacArthur Justice Center at the University of Mississippi School of Law

Experience: No elected office

Raised: $808.7K
From individuals: $758.3K
Spent: $623.1K
Cash on hand: $185.6K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

RepublicanIncumbent

Trent Kelly

Incumbent U.S. representative

Experience: Statewide office or Congress

Raised: $1.3M
From individuals: $598.2K
Spent: $864K
Cash on hand: $1M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office: 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Southeast adjustment: −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs

Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)	-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)	0.41
Elected-experience edge	-1
First-term incumbent	0
Seat's last result vs. expectation	-0.75
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation	-0.75

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population: 743,810
People per km²: 28
Adults with a B.A.+: 25%
White, no degree: 49%of adults

White 64%
Hispanic 4%
Black 28%
Asian 1%
Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

320,286 votes · R+39.6

✓ Trent Kelly (R)69.8%

Dianne Dodson Black (D)30.2%

2024 President Vote in this district

319,779 two-party votes · R+37.5 · R+36.0 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%

Kamala Harris (D)31.2%

2022

167,390 votes · R+45.9

✓ Trent Kelly (R)73.0%

Dianne Black (D)27.0%

2020 Earlier district lines

332,795 votes · R+37.5

✓ Trent Kelly (R)68.7%

Antonia Eliason (D)31.3%

2020 President Vote in this district

336,984 two-party votes · R+32.6 · R+37.1 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)66.3%

Joe Biden (D)33.7%

2018 Earlier district lines

236,521 votes · R+34.8

✓ Trent Kelly (R)66.9%

Randy Mack Wadkins (D)32.4%

Tracella Lou O'Hara Hill (REF)0.7%

2016 Earlier district lines

300,423 votes · R+42.2

✓ Trent Kelly (R)68.7%

Jacob Owens (D)27.9%

Chase Wilson (L)2.1%

Cathy L Toole (REF)1.3%

2016 President Vote in this district

312,721 two-party votes · R+33.5 · R+35.7 vs. the nation

✓ Donald Trump (R)66.7%

Hillary Clinton (D)33.3%

Also on the ballot in Mississippi

U.S. SenateScott ColomCindy Hyde-Smith86%Rep.85%Rep.

Neighboring districts

MS-2Bennie ThompsonRon Eller>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MS-3Michael ChiaradioMichael Guest>99%Rep.98%Rep.