Democratic
Bob Harvie
Chair of the Bucks County Commission (2020–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $794.9K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 1st District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (60%).
Harvie is favored to win: Harvie wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Harvie (D)
60%
chance of winning
Fitzpatrick (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- 6in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Harvie is favored to win: Harvie wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Harvie (D)
68%
chance of winning
Fitzpatrick (R)
32%
- Average margin
- D+3.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- 6in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brian Fitzpatrick
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $7.8M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $9.8M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -11.58 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -11.58 |
Polls
All 6 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Harvie | Fitzpatrick | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies for Fitzpatrick's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 11–Sep 14 | 400 RV | 40 | 49 | R+9 | R+0.2 |
| GQR for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 19–Aug 23 | 400 LV | 48 | 49 | R+1 | R+5.1 |
| Global Strategy Group for Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 5–Aug 9 | 500 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | R+9.4 |
| Global Strategy Group for Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Mar 19–Mar 22 | 400 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6 | R+10.8 |
| Public Policy Polling for Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 10–Oct 11 | 585 LV | 41 | 41 | Even | R+0.7 |
| Global Strategy Group for Harvie's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 1–Oct 8 | 1,032 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | R+2.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 14, 2026.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 771,822
- People per km²
- 415
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
463,432 votes · R+12.8✓ Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)56.4%
Ashley Ehasz (D)43.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
468,726 two-party votes · D+0.3 · D+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2022
367,380 votes · R+9.7✓ Brian K Fitzpatrick (R)54.9%
Ashley Ehasz (D)45.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
441,679 votes · R+13.1✓ Brian K Fitzpatrick (R)56.6%
Christina Finello (D)43.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
500,219 two-party votes · D+4.4 · R+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
329,798 votes · R+2.5✓ Brian K Fitzpatrick (R)51.3%
Henry Scott Wallace (D)48.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
299,010 votes · D+64.4✓ Robert A Brady (D)82.2%
Deborah Williams (R)17.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
422,164 two-party votes · D+0.2 · R+2.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%