Democratic
Ashley Bell
Physician associate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $84K
- From individuals
- $64K
- Spent
- $57.8K
- Cash on hand
- $26.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 10th District
Harrigan is clearly favored to win: Harrigan wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Bell (D)
9%
chance of winning
Harrigan (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+8.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Harrigan is clearly favored to win: Harrigan wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Bell (D)
16%
chance of winning
Harrigan (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Pat Harrigan
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $731.7K
- Spent
- $739K
- Cash on hand
- $616.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bell | Harrigan | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 10–Mar 12 | 400 LV | 37 | 52 | R+15 | R+6.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Mar 12, 2026.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 754,984
- People per km²
- 152
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 15%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
405,684 votes · R+20.3✓ Pat Harrigan (R)57.6%
Ralph R. Scott, Jr. (D)38.1%
Steven Feldman (L)2.8%
Todd Helm (CST)1.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
410,967 two-party votes · R+17.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.9%
Kamala Harris (D)41.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
268,207 votes · R+45.4✓ Patrick T McHenry (R)72.6%
Pam Genant (D)27.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
824,711 votes · R+37.8✓ Patrick T McHenry (R)68.9%
David Parker (D)31.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
434,979 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Joe Biden (D)42.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
278,228 votes · R+18.6✓ Patrick McHenry (R)59.3%
David Wilson Brown (D)40.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
349,744 votes · R+26.3✓ Patrick T McHenry (R)63.1%
Andy Millard (D)36.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
358,510 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.8%