Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 3rd District
FusionSuozzi is very likely to win: Suozzi wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Suozzi (D)
95%
chance of winning
LiPetri (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+13.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Suozzi is favored to win: Suozzi wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Suozzi (D)
79%
chance of winning
LiPetri (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+7.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Tom Suozzi
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $7.2M
- From individuals
- $4.8M
- Spent
- $4.2M
- Cash on hand
- $5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Mike LiPetri
Former state assemblyman from the 9th district (2019–2021), candidate for the 2nd district in 2020, and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $788.2K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $917.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.99 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.55 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 773,211
- People per km²
- 1,106
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 53%
- White, no degree
- 25%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 3%
- Asian 24%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
363,117 votes · D+3.6✓ Thomas R. Suozzi (D)51.7%
Michael J. Lipetri, Jr. (R)48.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
372,377 two-party votes · R+4.3 · R+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Kamala Harris (D)47.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
271,304 votes · R+7.5✓ George A D Santos (R)53.7%
Robert P Zimmerman (D)46.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
372,745 votes · D+12.6✓ Thomas R Suozzi (D)56.0%
George Ad Santos (R)43.4%
Howard Rabin (L)0.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
389,225 two-party votes · D+11.4 · D+6.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.7%
Donald Trump (R)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
267,010 votes · D+18.0✓ Thomas R Suozzi (D)59.0%
Dan P de Bono (R)41.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
324,254 votes · D+6.0✓ Thomas R Suozzi (D)53.0%
Jack M Martins (R)47.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
331,611 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+6.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
Also on the ballot in New York
Neighboring districts
NY-1Chris GallantNick LaLotaFlip risk65%Rep.54%Rep. NY-2Patrick HalpinAndrew Garbarino77%Rep.63%Rep. NY-4Laura GillenJeanine Driscoll98%Dem.91%Dem. NY-5Gregory MeeksGeorge Marsh>99%Dem.>99%Dem. NY-6Grace MengJoseph Chou>99%Dem.98%Dem. NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDiamant Hysenaj>99%Dem.>99%Dem. NY-16George LatimerJoseph Cinquemani>99%Dem.>99%Dem.