Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 3rd District
Jack is very likely to win: Jack wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Keller (D)
2%
chance of winning
Jack (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 1in our database
Jack is very likely to win: Jack wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Keller wins Nov 3
4%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Jack wins Nov 3
96%
Including the runoff: Keller 4% · Jack 96% to win the seat. In a runoff, Jack wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+15.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Maura Keller
Salon owner and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $237.9K
- From individuals
- $227.9K
- Spent
- $126.1K
- Cash on hand
- $114.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Brian Jack
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.2 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Keller | Jack | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus for Keller's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 7 | 301 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 | R+9.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 7, 2026.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 791,166
- People per km²
- 72
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 24%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
411,785 votes · R+32.6✓ Brian Jack (R)66.3%
Maura Keller (D)33.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
414,107 two-party votes · R+29.6 · R+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Kamala Harris (D)35.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
310,581 votes · R+37.5✓ A Drew Ferguson IV (R)68.7%
Val Almonord (D)31.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
371,318 votes · R+30.1✓ A Drew Ferguson IV (R)65.0%
Val Almonord (D)35.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
380,830 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+35.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Joe Biden (D)34.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
293,006 votes · R+31.1✓ Drew Ferguson (R)65.5%
Chuck Enderlin (D)34.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
303,187 votes · R+36.7✓ Drew Ferguson (R)68.3%
Angela Pendley (D)31.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
308,560 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+38.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.7%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
GA-2Sanford BishopMatt DayRunoff 2%98%Dem.94%Dem. GA-5Nikema WilliamsJohn Oscar Salvesen>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GA-6Lucy McBathKevin Martin>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GA-8Kelly EstiAustin Scott>99%Rep.99%Rep. GA-10Pam DelancyHouston GainesRunoff 2%99%Rep.93%Rep. GA-13Jasmine ClarkJonathan Chavez>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GA-14Shawn HarrisClay Fuller>99%Rep.>99%Rep.