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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Michigan's 9th District

McClain is very likely to win: McClain wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Pooley (D)
<1%
chance of winning
McClain (R)
>99%
Average margin
R+27.2
80% of outcomes
R+37 to R+18
Partisan lean
R+32
Polls
No pollsmodel only

McClain is very likely to win: McClain wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Pooley (D)
1%
chance of winning
McClain (R)
99%
Average margin
R+25.6
80% of outcomes
R+37 to R+14
Partisan lean
R+32
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

R+27.2R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
R+25.6R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Pooley <1%McClain >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Pooley 1%McClain 99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Ray Pooley

CNC machinist and programmer

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$8.1K
Spent
$3.1K
Cash on hand
$4.9K

Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.

Profile and career

RepublicanIncumbent

Lisa McClain

Incumbent U.S. representative (2021–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$6M
From individuals
$3.1M
Spent
$4.9M
Cash on hand
$1.7M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Midwest adjustment
+1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Midwest adjustmentR+23.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+27.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Michigan andlook-alike placesR+27.0Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+27.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+25.6

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-3.89
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-4.08
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation-4.08

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean R+32: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+34.8R+37.0 vs. nation2020 presidentR+29.9R+34.4 vs. nation2024 presidentR+32.8R+31.3 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
777,764
People per km²
44
Adults with a B.A.+
29%
White, no degree
64%of adults
  • White 88%
  • Hispanic 4%
  • Black 2%
  • Asian 1%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

468,253 votes · R+38.7
✓ Lisa C. McClain (R)66.8%
Clinton St. Mosley (D)29.5%
Jim Walkowicz (WCP)2.6%
Kevin Vayko (L)1.1%

2024 President Vote in this district

480,548 two-party votes · R+32.8 · R+31.3 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)66.4%
Kamala Harris (D)33.6%

2022

373,263 votes · R+31.7
✓ Lisa McClain (R)63.8%
Brian Jaye (D)33.1%
Jim Walkowicz (WCP)1.8%
Jake Kelts (L)1.2%

2020 Earlier district lines

399,117 votes · D+20.1
✓ Andy Levin (D)57.7%
Charles J Langworthy (R)38.4%
Andrea L Kirby (WCP)2.2%
Mike Saliba (L)1.6%

2020 President Vote in this district

457,041 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+34.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Joe Biden (D)35.0%

2018 Earlier district lines

304,563 votes · D+23.7
✓ Andy Levin (D)59.7%
Candius Stearns (R)36.8%
Andrea Kirby (WCP)2.2%
John V McDermott (G)1.3%

2016 Earlier district lines

344,775 votes · D+21.5
✓ Sander M Levin (D)57.9%
Christopher R Morse (R)37.4%
Matthew Orlando (L)2.8%
John V McDermott (G)1.9%

2016 President Vote in this district

369,919 two-party votes · R+34.8 · R+37.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)67.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.6%

Also on the ballot in Michigan

U.S. SenateAbdul El-SayedMike Rogers76%Dem.76%Dem. GovernorJocelyn BensonJohn James90%Dem.88%Dem.

Neighboring districts

MI-1Callie BarrJack Bergman96%Rep.95%Rep. MI-7William LawrenceTom BarrettD flipFlip risk60%Dem.57%Dem. MI-8Kristen McDonald RivetThomas Smith94%Dem.75%Dem. MI-10Christina HinesMike Bouchard Jr.Flip riskFlip risk55%Dem.59%Rep. MI-11Jeremy MossEthan Baker>99%Dem.99%Dem. MI-13Donavan McKinneyT. P. Nykoriak>99%Dem.>99%Dem.