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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 25th District
Moskowitz is clearly favored to win: Moskowitz wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Moskowitz (D)
81%
chance of winning
Singer (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- 1in our database
Moskowitz is favored to win: Moskowitz wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Moskowitz (D)
69%
chance of winning
Singer (R)
31%
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+6
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jared Moskowitz
Incumbent U.S. representative from the 23rd district (previously ran in the 23rd district)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.1M
- From individuals
- $3.7M
- Spent
- $3.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Scott Singer
Former mayor of Boca Raton (2018–2026) (previously ran in the 23rd district)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $562.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.64 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Moskowitz | Singer | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Insights for Moskowitz's campaignD-sponsored | May 1–May 2 | 461 RV | 43 | 33 | D+10 | D+10.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: May 2, 2026.
The district
Lean R+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 792,940
- People per km²
- 867
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 7%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
344,021 votes · D+9.0✓ Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)54.3%
Chris Eddy (R)45.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
374,662 two-party votes · R+9.0 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.5%
Kamala Harris (D)45.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
234,352 votes · D+10.2✓ Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)55.1%
Carla Spalding (R)44.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
395,777 two-party votes · D+5.2 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
212,845 votes · R+20.9✓ Mario Diaz-Balart (R)60.5%
Mary Barzee Flores (D)39.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
253,240 votes · R+24.7✓ Mario Diaz-Balart (R)62.4%
Alina Valdes (D)37.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
340,454 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+9.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%
2014 Earlier district lines
1 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Mario Diaz-Balart (R)100.0%
Also on the ballot in Florida
Neighboring districts
FL-20Debbie Wasserman SchultzBrent Andersen>99%Dem.>99%Dem. FL-22Pia DandiyaCasey Askar51%Dem.54%Rep. FL-23Lois FrankelDeborah Adeimy>99%Dem.99%Dem. FL-24Oliver GilbertTe Mayonna Brown>99%Dem.>99%Dem. FL-26Nicole LocklinMario Díaz-Balart80%Rep.75%Rep. FL-27Eliott RodriguezMaría Elvira Salazar77%Rep.71%Rep.