DemocraticIncumbent
Sarah McBride
Incumbent U.S. Representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.4M
- From individuals
- $4.6M
- Spent
- $3M
- Cash on hand
- $2.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Delaware › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Delaware's at-large District
McBride is very likely to win: McBride wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McBride (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Arminio (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McBride is very likely to win: McBride wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McBride (D)
99%
chance of winning
Arminio (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+23.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+13 to D+36
- Partisan lean
- D+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joseph Arminio
Medical doctor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $12.3K
- From individuals
- $7.4K
- Spent
- $5.4K
- Cash on hand
- $6.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.35 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.35 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,021,191
- People per km²
- 158
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 21%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
497,436 votes · D+15.7✓ Sarah McBride (D)57.9%
John J. Whalen III (R)42.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
503,194 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+16.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%
2022
321,649 votes · D+12.7✓ Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)55.5%
Lee Murphy (R)43.0%
Cody McNutt (L)1.0%
David Rogers (OTH)0.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
488,270 votes · D+17.8✓ Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)57.6%
Lee Murphy (R)40.2%
Catherine S Purcell (I)1.4%
David L Rogers (L)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
496,868 two-party votes · D+19.3 · D+14.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
353,814 votes · D+28.9✓ Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)64.3%
Scott Walker (R)35.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
420,617 votes · D+15.1✓ Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)55.5%
Hans Reigle (R)41.0%
Mark J Perri (G)2.0%
Scott A Gesty (L)1.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
420,727 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%