Democratic
Brian Shaver
President of Fostoria City Council
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $11.7K
- From individuals
- $3.9K
- Spent
- $7.3K
- Cash on hand
- $8.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 5th District
Latta is very likely to win: Latta wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Shaver (D)
2%
chance of winning
Latta (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Latta is clearly favored to win: Latta wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Shaver (D)
5%
chance of winning
Latta (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+15.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 796,959
- People per km²
- 66
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
378,657 votes · R+35.0✓ Robert E. Latta (R)67.5%
Keith Mundy (D)32.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
384,153 two-party votes · R+24.0 · R+22.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.0%
Kamala Harris (D)38.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
279,937 votes · R+33.8✓ Robert E Latta (R)66.9%
Craig Swartz (D)33.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
377,981 votes · R+36.0✓ Robert E Latta (R)68.0%
Nick Rubando (D)32.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
382,702 two-party votes · R+21.5 · R+26.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Joe Biden (D)39.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
283,617 votes · R+27.8✓ Bob Latta (R)62.3%
J Michael Galbraith (D)35.1%
Don Kissick (L)2.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
344,991 votes · R+41.8✓ Robert E Latta (R)70.9%
James Neu Jr (D)29.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
336,942 two-party votes · R+19.9 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.0%