Democratic
Rick Crosson
Former Green Bay school board member (2024–2025)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $142.4K
- From individuals
- $128.2K
- Spent
- $96.8K
- Cash on hand
- $45.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin's 8th District
Wied is clearly favored to win: Wied wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Crosson (D)
13%
chance of winning
Wied (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+7.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Wied is clearly favored to win: Wied wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Crosson (D)
15%
chance of winning
Wied (R)
85%
- Average margin
- R+8.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.29 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 744,079
- People per km²
- 29
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 1%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
842,409 votes · R+14.5✓ Tony Wied (R)57.2%
Kristin Lyerly (D)42.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
424,323 two-party votes · R+16.5 · R+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
308,229 votes · R+97.2✓ Mike Gallagher (R)72.7%
Paul David Boucher (I)15.9%
Jacob J Vandenplas (L)10.4%
Julie Hancock (D)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
417,838 votes · R+28.4✓ Mike Gallagher (R)64.2%
Amanda Stuck (D)35.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
410,651 two-party votes · R+15.5 · R+20.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Joe Biden (D)42.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
328,675 votes · R+27.4✓ Mike Gallagher (R)63.7%
Beau Liegeois (D)36.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
363,592 votes · R+25.4✓ Mike Gallagher (R)62.7%
Tom Nelson (D)37.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
342,337 two-party votes · R+18.2 · R+20.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.9%