DemocraticIncumbent
Gwen Moore
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $381.2K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $28.6K
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin's 4th District
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Moore (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+61.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+52 to D+70
- Partisan lean
- D+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moore is very likely to win: Moore wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Moore (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rogers (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+60.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+49 to D+73
- Partisan lean
- D+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tim Rogers
Perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 723,787
- People per km²
- 510
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 40%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 32%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
334,282 votes · D+53.9✓ Gwen Moore (D)74.8%
Tim Rogers (R)22.4%
Robert R. Raymond (I)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
338,666 two-party votes · D+52.5 · D+54.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)76.2%
Donald Trump (R)23.8%
2022
254,779 votes · D+53.8✓ Gwen Moore (D)75.3%
Tim Rogers (R)22.6%
Robert R Raymond (I)2.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
311,697 votes · D+53.4✓ Gwen Moore (D)74.6%
Tim Rogers (R)22.7%
Robert R Raymond (I)2.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
350,919 two-party votes · D+54.7 · D+50.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)77.3%
Donald Trump (R)22.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
272,748 votes · D+55.5✓ Gwen S Moore (D)75.7%
Tim Rogers (R)21.7%
Robert R Raymond (I)2.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
285,858 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Gwen Moore (D)77.0%
Robert R Raymond (I)11.7%
Andy Craig (L)11.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
316,934 two-party votes · D+52.8 · D+50.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)76.4%
Donald Trump (R)23.6%