Democratic
Thurman Bartie
Former mayor of Port Arthur
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $36.7K
- From individuals
- $35.6K
- Spent
- $35.5K
- Cash on hand
- $5.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 14th District
Weber is very likely to win: Weber wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bartie (D)
2%
chance of winning
Weber (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Weber is very likely to win: Weber wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Bartie (D)
4%
chance of winning
Weber (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+16.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Randy Weber
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $259K
- Spent
- $801.1K
- Cash on hand
- $900.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 805,248
- People per km²
- 133
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 16%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
306,195 votes · R+37.4✓ Randy K. Weber, Sr. (R)68.7%
Rhonda Hart (D)31.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
332,585 two-party votes · R+24.5 · R+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.2%
Kamala Harris (D)37.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
218,143 votes · R+37.1✓ Randy K Weber, Sr (R)68.5%
Mikal Williams (D)31.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
309,115 votes · R+23.3✓ Randy K Weber Sr (R)61.6%
Adrienne Bell (D)38.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
399,002 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+26.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Joe Biden (D)39.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
234,508 votes · R+20.2✓ Randy Weber (R)59.2%
Adrienne Bell (D)39.3%
Don E Conley III (L)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
259,685 votes · R+23.7✓ Randy K Weber Sr (R)61.9%
Michael Cole (D)38.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
310,455 two-party votes · R+26.7 · R+28.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.6%