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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 11th District
Strada is clearly favored to win: Strada wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Pericola (D)
15%
chance of winning
Strada (R)
85%
- Average margin
- R+6.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- 1in our database
Strada is clearly favored to win: Strada wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Pericola (D)
20%
chance of winning
Strada (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
James Pericola
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $197.3K
- From individuals
- $112.8K
- Spent
- $175.4K
- Cash on hand
- $21.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Joe Strada
Businessman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5.4M
- From individuals
- $353.5K
- Spent
- $4.6M
- Cash on hand
- $820K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.35 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pericola | Strada | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW Communications for Pericola's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 28–Jul 29 | — LV | 42 | 42 | Even | R+4.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 29, 2026.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 821,189
- People per km²
- 199
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 10%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
446,003 votes · R+20.8✓ Daniel Webster (R)60.4%
Barbie Harden Hall (D)39.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
447,490 two-party votes · R+15.6 · R+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Kamala Harris (D)42.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
326,609 votes · R+28.1✓ Daniel Webster (R)63.1%
Shante Munns (D)35.4%
Kevin Porter (I)1.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
475,073 votes · R+33.4✓ Daniel Webster (R)66.7%
Dana Marie Cottrell (D)33.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
440,638 two-party votes · R+9.9 · R+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Joe Biden (D)45.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
367,761 votes · R+30.3✓ Daniel Webster (R)65.1%
Dana Cottrell (D)34.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
394,719 votes · R+34.8✓ Daniel Webster (R)65.4%
Dave Koller (D)31.6%
Bruce Ray Riggs (I)3.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
510,903 two-party votes · R+8.0 · R+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.0%