Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 12th District
FusionLasher is very likely to win: Lasher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lasher (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Shinkle (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+71.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+62 to D+82
- Partisan lean
- D+67
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lasher is very likely to win: Lasher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Lasher (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Shinkle (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+73.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+61 to D+87
- Partisan lean
- D+67
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Micah Lasher
State assemblymember from the 69th district (2025–present) and candidate for New York's 31st State Senate district in 2016
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $3.3M
- From individuals
- $2.8M
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Caroline Shinkle
Lawyer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $155.1K
- From individuals
- $126.7K
- Spent
- $71.3K
- Cash on hand
- $83.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Independent
Karen Ortiz
Former Equal Employment Opportunity Commission administrative judge (2018–2025)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $46.3K
- From individuals
- $20.9K
- Spent
- $22.8K
- Cash on hand
- $23.5K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.83 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+67: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 739,892
- People per km²
- 21,039
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 80%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 5%
- Asian 13%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
324,020 votes · D+61.0✓ Jerrold Nadler (D)80.3%
Michael K. Zumbluskas (R)19.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
332,262 two-party votes · D+64.9 · D+66.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)82.4%
Donald Trump (R)17.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
245,694 votes · D+63.9✓ Jerrold Nadler (D)81.8%
Michael K Zumbluskas (R)18.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
322,248 votes · D+66.7✓ Carolyn B Maloney (D)82.3%
Carlos Santiago-Cano (R)16.5%
Steven Kolln (L)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
338,704 two-party votes · D+72.1 · D+67.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)86.1%
Donald Trump (R)13.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
251,604 votes · D+75.4✓ Carolyn B Maloney (D)86.4%
Eliot Rabin (R)12.1%
Scott Hutchins (G)1.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
293,866 votes · D+66.3✓ Carolyn B Maloney (D)83.2%
Robert Ardini (R)16.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
313,000 two-party votes · D+73.4 · D+71.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)86.7%
Donald Trump (R)13.3%