DemocraticIncumbent
Jake Auchincloss
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.6M
- From individuals
- $2.3M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $7.3M
Money: FEC, through Aug 12, 2026.
Massachusetts › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts's 4th District
Auchincloss is very likely to win: Auchincloss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Auchincloss (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Stalcup (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+53
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Auchincloss is very likely to win: Auchincloss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Auchincloss (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Stalcup (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+30.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+20 to D+42
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Thomas Stalcup
Physicist and entrepreneur
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $26.2K
- From individuals
- $9K
- Spent
- $24.9K
- Cash on hand
- $1.3K
Money: FEC, through Aug 12, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 40 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 782,439
- People per km²
- 426
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 50%
- White, no degree
- 40%of adults
- White 76%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 3%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
290,446 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jake Auchincloss (D)99.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
395,779 two-party votes · D+20.1 · D+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.1%
Donald Trump (R)39.9%
2022
201,882 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jake Auchincloss (D)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
411,576 votes · D+22.0✓ Jake Auchincloss (D)61.0%
Julie A Hall (R)39.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
408,976 two-party votes · D+29.0 · D+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)64.5%
Donald Trump (R)35.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
245,289 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Joseph P Kennedy III (D)100.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
378,878 votes · D+40.3✓ Joseph P Kennedy III (D)70.2%
David A Rosa (R)29.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
351,705 two-party votes · D+24.4 · D+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.2%
Donald Trump (R)37.8%