DemocraticIncumbent
April McClain Delaney
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $12.5M
- From individuals
- $911.8K
- Spent
- $12.4M
- Cash on hand
- $72.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 6th District
Delaney is very likely to win: Delaney wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Delaney (D)
99%
chance of winning
Ficker (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Delaney is very likely to win: Delaney wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Delaney (D)
96%
chance of winning
Ficker (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+15.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robin Ficker
Former state delegate from district 15B (1979–1983), sports heckler, and perennial candidate
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $2K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $671
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.29 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.29 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 799,419
- People per km²
- 127
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 13%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
376,624 votes · D+6.3✓ April McClain Delaney (D)53.0%
Neil C. Parrott (R)46.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
377,590 two-party votes · D+5.9 · D+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2022
256,398 votes · D+9.6✓ David J Trone (D)54.7%
Neil C Parrott (R)45.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
366,434 votes · D+20.0✓ David J Trone (D)58.8%
Neil C Parrott (R)39.2%
George Gluck (G)1.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
457,595 two-party votes · D+11.0 · D+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
277,084 votes · D+21.6✓ David Trone (D)59.0%
Amie Hoeber (R)38.0%
Kevin T Caldwell (L)1.8%
George Gluck (G)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
331,962 votes · D+16.5✓ John K Delaney (D)56.0%
Amie Hoeber (R)40.1%
David L Howser (L)2.1%
George Gluck (G)1.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
427,071 two-party votes · D+7.5 · D+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.8%
Donald Trump (R)46.2%