Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Connecticut's 4th District
FusionHimes is very likely to win: Himes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Himes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Goldstein (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+38.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Himes is very likely to win: Himes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Himes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Goldstein (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+35.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Jim Himes
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $526.3K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Michael Goldstein
Member of the Greenwich Representative Town Meeting from the 10th district (2023–present), nominee for this district in 2024, and candidate in 2020 and 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $58K
- From individuals
- $33K
- Spent
- $32.5K
- Cash on hand
- $25.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.12 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.12 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 734,193
- People per km²
- 538
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 54%
- White, no degree
- 20%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 10%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
328,857 votes · D+24.1✓ James A. Himes (D)61.1%
Michael Goldstein (R)37.3%
Benjamin Wesley (I)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
335,137 two-party votes · D+23.7 · D+25.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.9%
Donald Trump (R)38.1%
2022
236,084 votes · D+18.8✓ James A Himes (D)59.4%
Jayme Stevenson (R)40.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
360,716 votes · D+26.4✓ James A Himes (D)62.2%
Jonathan Riddle (R)36.2%
Brian Merlen (I)1.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
337,683 two-party votes · D+31.0 · D+26.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
275,650 votes · D+22.4✓ Jim Himes (D)61.2%
Harry Arora (R)38.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
313,540 votes · D+19.8✓ James A Himes (D)59.9%
John Shaban (R)40.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
292,712 two-party votes · D+24.8 · D+22.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.4%
Donald Trump (R)37.6%