DemocraticIncumbent
Jennifer McClellan
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $695.8K
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $206.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 4th District
McClellan is very likely to win: McClellan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McClellan (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Murray (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+51
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McClellan is very likely to win: McClellan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McClellan (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Murray (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Robert Murray
Former CIO advisory leader for IBM
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.2K
- From individuals
- $1.2K
- Spent
- $27
- Cash on hand
- $1.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.42 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.42 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 781,913
- People per km²
- 86
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 41%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
375,508 votes · D+35.0✓ Jennifer L. McClellan (D)67.3%
William J. "bill" Moher III (R)32.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
376,861 two-party votes · D+33.2 · D+34.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.6%
Donald Trump (R)33.4%
2023 special
110,123 votes · D+49.0✓ McClellan, Jennifer L. (D)74.5%
Benjamin, Leon, Sr. (R)25.5%
2022
244,972 votes · D+30.1✓ A Donald McEachin (D)64.9%
Leon Benjamin, Sr (R)34.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
391,402 votes · D+23.4✓ A Donald McEachin (D)61.6%
Leon Benjamin Sr (R)38.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
423,277 two-party votes · D+37.0 · D+32.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.5%
Donald Trump (R)31.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
299,869 votes · D+27.1✓ A Donald McEachin (D)62.6%
Ryan A McAdams (R)35.9%
Peter J "pete" Wells (L)1.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
371,406 two-party votes · D+35.3 · D+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.6%
Donald Trump (R)32.4%