Democratic
Kristin Hook
Scientist and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $369.2K
- From individuals
- $361.1K
- Spent
- $259.5K
- Cash on hand
- $114.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 21st District
Teixeira is clearly favored to win: Teixeira wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hook (D)
6%
chance of winning
Teixeira (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Teixeira is clearly favored to win: Teixeira wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Hook (D)
9%
chance of winning
Teixeira (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mark Teixeira
Former MLB player
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.3M
- From individuals
- $823.7K
- Spent
- $3.8M
- Cash on hand
- $495.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 801,990
- People per km²
- 50
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 54%
- Hispanic 36%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
426,422 votes · R+26.3✓ Chip Roy (R)61.9%
Kristin Hook (D)36.1%
Bob King (L)2.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
408,190 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+20.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Kamala Harris (D)38.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
330,081 votes · R+25.7✓ Chip Roy (R)62.8%
Claudia Andreana Zapata (D)37.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
453,751 votes · R+6.8✓ Chip Roy (R)52.0%
Wendy R Davis (D)45.4%
Arthur Dibianca (L)1.9%
Tommy Wakely (G)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
436,331 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+19.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.4%
Joe Biden (D)42.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
353,361 votes · R+2.7✓ Chip Roy (R)50.2%
Joseph Kopser (D)47.6%
Lee Santos (L)2.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
356,031 votes · R+22.0✓ Lamar Smith (R)57.0%
Tom Wakely (D)36.4%
Mark Loewe (L)4.1%
Antonio "tony" Diaz (G)2.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
360,181 two-party votes · R+21.6 · R+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.2%