DemocraticIncumbent
Wesley Bell
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.6M
- From individuals
- $2.9M
- Spent
- $2.9M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Missouri › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri's 1st District
Bell is very likely to win: Bell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Berry (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+66.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+57 to D+76
- Partisan lean
- D+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bell is very likely to win: Bell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bell (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Berry (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+65.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+53 to D+78
- Partisan lean
- D+59
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Paul Berry
Bail bondsman and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.17 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.1 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.1 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+59: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 743,020
- People per km²
- 1,110
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 40%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 46%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
307,265 votes · D+61.0✓ Wesley Bell (D)75.9%
Andrew Jones (R)18.4%
Rochelle A. Riggins (L)3.3%
Don Fitz (G)1.7%
Blake Ashby (OTH)0.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
308,840 two-party votes · D+58.2 · D+59.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)79.1%
Donald Trump (R)20.9%
2022
220,958 votes · D+49.9✓ Cori Bush (D)72.9%
Andrew Jones (R)24.3%
George A Zsidisin (L)2.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
316,171 votes · D+61.2✓ Cori Bush (D)78.8%
Anthony Rogers (R)19.0%
Alex Furman (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
348,367 two-party votes · D+59.4 · D+54.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)79.7%
Donald Trump (R)20.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
274,375 votes · D+65.5✓ Lacy Clay (D)80.1%
Robert Vroman (R)16.7%
Robb Cunningham (L)3.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
314,024 votes · D+58.1✓ Wm Lacy Clay (D)75.5%
Steven G Bailey (R)20.0%
Robb E Cunningham (L)4.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
334,893 two-party votes · D+56.6 · D+54.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)78.3%
Donald Trump (R)21.7%