Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 1st District
FusionLaLota is favored to win: LaLota wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Gallant (D)
35%
chance of winning
LaLota (R)
65%
- Average margin
- R+2.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- 1in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Gallant (D)
46%
chance of winning
LaLota (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Chris Gallant
Air traffic controller
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $647.6K
- From individuals
- $633K
- Spent
- $475.4K
- Cash on hand
- $172.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Nick LaLota
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.22 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gallant | LaLota | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Dec 10–Dec 11 | 579 V | 38 | 41 | R+3 | R+5.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Dec 11, 2025.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 782,447
- People per km²
- 160
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
409,825 votes · R+10.4✓ Nick Lalota (R)55.2%
John P. Avlon (D)44.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
423,272 two-party votes · R+10.2 · R+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
318,995 votes · R+11.0✓ Nicholas J Lalota (R)55.5%
Bridget Fleming (D)44.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
375,116 votes · R+9.7✓ Lee M Zeldin (R)54.8%
Nancy S Goroff (D)45.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
423,411 two-party votes · R+1.8 · R+6.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.9%
Joe Biden (D)49.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
270,006 votes · R+4.1✓ Lee M Zeldin (R)51.5%
Perry Gershon (D)47.4%
Kate M Browning (OTH)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
323,890 votes · R+16.4✓ Lee M Zeldin (R)58.2%
Anna E Throne-Holst (D)41.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
361,449 two-party votes · R+10.2 · R+12.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.9%