Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 11th District
FusionMalliotakis is very likely to win: Malliotakis wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
DeCillis (D)
3%
chance of winning
Malliotakis (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+14.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Malliotakis is clearly favored to win: Malliotakis wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
DeCillis (D)
8%
chance of winning
Malliotakis (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+13.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Michael DeCillis
Retired police officer and candidate for this district in 2018 and 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $155.5K
- From individuals
- $155.5K
- Spent
- $69.4K
- Cash on hand
- $86.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Nicole Malliotakis
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.3M
- From individuals
- $1.3M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $2.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.08 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.08 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 758,202
- People per km²
- 2,558
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 51%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 7%
- Asian 20%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
261,728 votes · R+28.2✓ Nicole Malliotakis (R)63.8%
Andrea S. Morse (D)35.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
267,717 two-party votes · R+24.8 · R+23.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.4%
Kamala Harris (D)37.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
187,793 votes · R+23.5✓ Nicole Malliotakis (R)61.8%
Max N Rose (D)38.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
292,806 votes · R+6.3✓ Nicole Malliotakis (R)53.1%
Max N Rose (D)46.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
291,772 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Joe Biden (D)46.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
192,038 votes · D+6.5✓ Max N Rose (D)53.0%
Dan Donovan (R)46.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
232,317 votes · R+25.3✓ Daniel M Donovan Jr (R)61.5%
Richard A Reichard (D)36.7%
Henry J Bardel (G)1.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
239,245 two-party votes · R+8.1 · R+10.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.9%