Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska's at-large District
RCVTop fourBegich is favored to win: Begich wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hill (Ind.)
24%
chance of winning
Begich (R)
76%
- Average margin
- R+4.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 15in our database
Begich is favored to win: Begich wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Hill (Ind.)
27%
chance of winning
Begich (R)
73%
- Average margin
- R+4.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- 15in our database
How this race is decided
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Independent
Bill Hill
Commercial fisherman and former superintendent of the Bristol Bay Borough School District
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $1.3M
- Spent
- $820.4K
- Cash on hand
- $515.9K
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
Democratic
Eric Hafner
Federal prisoner, perennial candidate, and candidate for this seat in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
RepublicanIncumbent
Nick Begich III
Incumbent U.S. representative (2025–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.5M
- From individuals
- $2.8M
- Spent
- $2.5M
- Cash on hand
- $3.1M
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
Libertarian
Jim McDermott
Business professor and three-time candidate for this seat
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 13.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 13.32 |
Polls
All 15 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hill | III | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 578 RV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+0.9 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 40 | 50 | R+10 | R+7.0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Oct 1–Oct 3 | 1,512 LV | 47 | 53 | R+6 | R+7.0 |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 504 LV | 37 | 49 | R+12 | R+5.6 |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 504 LV | 47 | 53 | R+6 | R+5.6 |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 24–Oct 1 | 504 LV | 35 | 47 | R+12 | R+5.6 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 35 | 51 | R+16 | R+14.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 43 | 57 | R+14 | R+14.1 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | 31 | 45 | R+14 | R+14.1 |
| Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 820 LV | 37 | 44 | R+7 | R+13.7 |
| Bullfinch Group for the Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 739 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 | R+13.7 |
| GBAO for Hill's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 3–Aug 5 | 500 LV | 42 | 46 | R+4 | |
| Data for ProgressD-sponsored | Jul 28–Aug 4 | 605 LV | 37 | 47 | R+10 | R+10.2 |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | May 18–May 27 | 452 LV | 48 | 52 | R+4 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Hill's campaignD-sponsored | Feb 11–Feb 12 | 600 LV | 37 | 41 | R+4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 15, 2026.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 735,706
- People per km²
- 0
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 3%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 26%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
328,805 votes · R+2.2✓ Nick Begich (R)48.5%
Mary Sattler Peltola (D)46.5%
John Wayne Howe (I)4.0%
Eric Hafner (D)1.0%
2022
263,610 votes · D+30.9✓ Mary Sattler Peltola (D)48.8%
Sarah Palin (R)25.7%
Nick Begich (R)23.3%
Chris Bye (L)1.7%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
231,102 votes · D+3.0✓ Peltola, Mary S. (D)39.5%
Palin, Sarah (R)37.2%
Begich, Nick (R)23.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
351,982 votes · R+9.2✓ Don Young (R)54.6%
Alyse S Galvin (D)45.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
343,687 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Joe Biden (D)44.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
282,166 votes · R+6.6✓ Don Young (R)53.1%
Alyse S Galvin (D)46.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
279,807 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.6%