Democratic
Yolanda Prince
Project manager and candidate for Texas's 6th House of Representatives district in 2018
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $9.2K
- From individuals
- $2.2K
- Spent
- $3.8K
- Cash on hand
- $394
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 1st District
Moran is very likely to win: Moran wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Prince (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moran (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+41.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+33
- Partisan lean
- R+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Moran is very likely to win: Moran wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Prince (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Moran (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+41.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+53 to R+30
- Partisan lean
- R+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Nathaniel Moran
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $932.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+48: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 782,580
- People per km²
- 31
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 17%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
258,504 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Nathaniel Moran (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
322,850 two-party votes · R+49.9 · R+48.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.0%
Kamala Harris (D)25.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
234,651 votes · R+56.2✓ Nathaniel Moran (R)78.1%
JRMAR âJJâ JEFFERSON (D)21.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
302,724 votes · R+45.2✓ Louie Gohmert (R)72.6%
Hank Gilbert (D)27.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
327,860 two-party votes · R+43.4 · R+47.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.7%
Joe Biden (D)28.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
232,718 votes · R+46.6✓ Louie Gohmert (R)72.3%
Shirley J McKellar (D)26.3%
Jeff Callaway (L)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
260,416 votes · R+50.8✓ Louie Gohmert (R)73.9%
Shirley J McKellar (D)24.1%
Phil Gray (L)1.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
278,428 two-party votes · R+47.0 · R+49.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.5%