Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 8th District
FusionJeffries is very likely to win: Jeffries wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jeffries (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mizrahi (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+47 to D+66
- Partisan lean
- D+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Jeffries is very likely to win: Jeffries wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Jeffries (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mizrahi (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+68
- Partisan lean
- D+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Hakeem Jeffries
Incumbent U.S. representative and House minority leader
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $14.9M
- From individuals
- $10.9M
- Spent
- $14.9M
- Cash on hand
- $5M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Lewis Mizrahi
Data analyst
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.71 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+48: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 742,855
- People per km²
- 6,383
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 13%of adults
- White 28%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 41%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
223,804 votes · D+50.8✓ Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)75.1%
John J. Delaney (R)24.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
235,049 two-party votes · D+44.7 · D+46.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)72.4%
Donald Trump (R)27.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
138,139 votes · D+43.4✓ Hakeem S Jeffries (D)71.7%
Yuri Dashevsky (R)28.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
276,940 votes · D+69.7✓ Hakeem S Jeffries (D)84.8%
Garfield H Wallace (R)15.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
262,195 two-party votes · D+56.0 · D+51.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)78.0%
Donald Trump (R)22.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
191,404 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Hakeem S Jeffries (D)94.2%
Ernest C Johnson (C)5.2%
Jessica L White (REF)0.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
230,203 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Hakeem S Jeffries (D)93.2%
Daniel J Cavanagh (C)6.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
232,287 two-party votes · D+63.4 · D+61.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)81.7%
Donald Trump (R)18.3%