Democratic
Adam Hamawy
Surgeon
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.9M
- From individuals
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $296.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 12th District
Hamawy is very likely to win: Hamawy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hamawy (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mele (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hamawy is very likely to win: Hamawy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hamawy (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Mele (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+46
- Partisan lean
- D+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Gregg Mele
Attorney and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $95.7K
- From individuals
- $38.5K
- Spent
- $85.4K
- Cash on hand
- $10.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 784,320
- People per km²
- 679
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 38%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 15%
- Asian 20%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
321,660 votes · D+25.4✓ Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)61.2%
Darius Mayfield (R)36.4%
Kim Meudt (G)1.4%
Vic Kaplan (L)0.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
318,730 two-party votes · D+24.5 · D+26.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.3%
Donald Trump (R)37.7%
2022
594,681 votes · D+27.5✓ Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)63.1%
Darius Mayfield (R)35.9%
C Lynn Genrich (L)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
351,725 votes · D+33.7✓ Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)65.6%
Mark Razzoli (R)32.6%
Edward "nj Weedman" Forchion (OTH)1.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
346,115 two-party votes · D+35.0 · D+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)67.5%
Donald Trump (R)32.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
252,375 votes · D+37.4✓ Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)68.7%
Daryl Kipnis (R)31.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
288,666 votes · D+32.5✓ Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)62.9%
Steven J Uccio (R)32.0%
R Edward Forchion (OTH)2.1%
Robert Shapiro (OTH)1.0%
Thomas Fitzpatrick (L)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
298,061 two-party votes · D+32.4 · D+30.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.2%
Donald Trump (R)33.8%