Democratic
Dione Sims
Non-profit founder
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5
- From individuals
- $0
- Spent
- $50
- Cash on hand
- -$45
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 25th District
Williams is very likely to win: Williams wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Sims (D)
2%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Williams is clearly favored to win: Williams wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Sims (D)
6%
chance of winning
Williams (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Roger Williams
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $86.7K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.65 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 812,906
- People per km²
- 35
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 46%
- Hispanic 29%
- Black 18%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
265,992 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Roger Williams (R)98.9%
Chad Hagg (—)1.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
306,014 two-party votes · R+24.1 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.0%
Kamala Harris (D)38.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
185,270 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Roger Williams (R)100.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
393,413 votes · R+14.1✓ Roger Williams (R)55.9%
Julie Oliver (D)42.1%
Bill Kelsey (L)2.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
313,757 two-party votes · R+15.4 · R+19.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Joe Biden (D)42.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
304,515 votes · R+8.9✓ Roger Williams (R)53.5%
Julie Oliver (D)44.8%
Desarae Lindsey (L)1.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
310,179 votes · R+21.4✓ Roger Williams (R)58.3%
Kathi Thomas (D)37.7%
Loren Marc Schneiderman (L)3.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
238,097 two-party votes · R+20.8 · R+23.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.6%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
TX-6Danny MintonJake Ellzey99%Rep.94%Rep. TX-11Claire ReynoldsAugust Pfluger>99%Rep.99%Rep. TX-12Angela Rodriguez PrillimanCraig Goldman97%Rep.94%Rep. TX-13Mark NairRonny Jackson>99%Rep.>99%Rep. TX-17Casey ShepardPete Sessions97%Rep.92%Rep. TX-19Kyle RableTom Sell>99%Rep.>99%Rep. TX-24Kevin BurgeBeth Van Duyne84%Rep.75%Rep. TX-26Steven ShookBrandon Gill99%Rep.95%Rep. TX-31Justin EarlyJohn Carter97%Rep.92%Rep.