Democratic
Drew Williams
Event organizer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $210.6K
- From individuals
- $192.4K
- Spent
- $167K
- Cash on hand
- $42.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Kentucky › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky's 1st District
Comer is very likely to win: Comer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Williams (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Comer (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+36.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+47
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Comer is very likely to win: Comer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Williams (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Comer (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+39.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+52 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+47
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
James Comer
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $2.4M
- Cash on hand
- $3.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.02 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.02 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+47: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 748,514
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 7%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
338,253 votes · R+49.4✓ James Comer (R)74.7%
Erin Marshall (D)25.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
338,382 two-party votes · R+47.9 · R+46.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.0%
Kamala Harris (D)26.0%
2022
245,796 votes · R+49.8✓ James Comer (R)74.9%
Jimmy C Ausbrooks (D)25.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
328,430 votes · R+50.0✓ James Comer (R)75.0%
James Rhodes (D)25.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
356,937 two-party votes · R+43.6 · R+48.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.8%
Joe Biden (D)28.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
251,014 votes · R+37.2✓ James R Comer (R)68.6%
Paul Walker (D)31.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
590,912 votes · R+44.8✓ James R Comer (R)72.2%
Samuel L Gaskins (D)27.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
324,953 two-party votes · R+46.3 · R+48.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.8%