DemocraticIncumbent
Marcy Kaptur
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.6M
- From individuals
- $3.2M
- Spent
- $4.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 9th District
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Kaptur (D)
59%
chance of winning
Merrin (R)
41%
- Average margin
- D+1.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 2in our database
Flip risk: Democratic-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Kaptur (D)
44%
chance of winning
Merrin (R)
56%
- Average margin
- R+0.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+10
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Derek Merrin
Former state representative (2016–2025) and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $718.9K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $806.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kaptur | Merrin | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Analytics Department | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 481 LV | 48 | 48 | Even | R+0.3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates for the NRCCR-sponsored | Apr 18–Apr 20 | 400 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | D+6.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 23, 2026.
The district
Lean R+10: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 780,880
- People per km²
- 68
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 11%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
375,195 votes · D+0.7✓ Marcy Kaptur (D)48.3%
Derek Merrin (R)47.6%
Tom Pruss (L)4.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
377,327 two-party votes · R+10.7 · R+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Kamala Harris (D)44.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
266,017 votes · D+13.3✓ Marcy Kaptur (D)56.6%
J R Majewski (R)43.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
301,752 votes · D+26.2✓ Marcy Kaptur (D)63.1%
Rob Weber (R)36.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
386,115 two-party votes · R+6.8 · R+11.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.4%
Joe Biden (D)46.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
231,889 votes · D+35.6✓ Marcy Kaptur (D)67.8%
Steven W Kraus (R)32.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
282,398 votes · D+37.4✓ Marcy Kaptur (D)68.7%
Donald P Larson (R)31.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
355,312 two-party votes · R+5.1 · R+7.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.5%