DemocraticIncumbent
Christian Menefee
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.7M
- From individuals
- $3.4M
- Spent
- $3.7M
- Cash on hand
- $63.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 18th District
Menefee is very likely to win: Menefee wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Menefee (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Whitfield (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+63.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+54 to D+73
- Partisan lean
- D+58
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Menefee is very likely to win: Menefee wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Menefee (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Whitfield (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+65.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+53 to D+78
- Partisan lean
- D+58
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ronald Whitfield
Landscaping contractor and candidate for this district in 2025
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.05 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+58: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 783,135
- People per km²
- 1,267
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 6%of adults
- White 13%
- Hispanic 37%
- Black 41%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 specialEarlier district lines
76,189 votes · D+62.3✓ Christian Menefee (D)28.9%
Amanda Edwards (D)25.6%
Jolanda Jones (D)19.1%
Carmen Montiel (R)6.7%
Isaiah Martin (D)5.7%
2024 Earlier district lines
218,720 votes · D+38.9✓ Sylvester Turner (D)69.4%
Lana Centonze (R)30.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
238,925 two-party votes · D+55.8 · D+57.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)77.9%
Donald Trump (R)22.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
156,239 votes · D+45.9✓ Sheila Jackson Lee (D)70.7%
Carmen Maria Montiel (R)26.2%
Vince Duncan (I)1.8%
Phil Kurtz (L)1.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
246,895 votes · D+51.4✓ Sheila Jackson Lee (D)73.3%
Wendell Champion (R)23.5%
Luke Spencer (L)1.8%
Vince Duncan (I)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
320,064 two-party votes · D+63.8 · D+59.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)81.9%
Donald Trump (R)18.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
184,332 votes · D+56.7✓ Sheila Jackson Lee (D)75.2%
Ava Reynero Pate (R)20.8%
Luke Spencer (L)2.2%
Vince Duncan (I)1.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
251,858 two-party votes · D+68.8 · D+66.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)84.4%
Donald Trump (R)15.6%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
TX-2Shaun FinnieSteve Toth98%Rep.97%Rep. TX-7Lizzie FletcherAlexander Hale>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-9Leticia GutierrezAlex Mealer91%Rep.84%Rep. TX-14Thurman BartieRandy Weber98%Rep.96%Rep. TX-22Marquette Greene-ScottTrever Nehls97%Rep.93%Rep. TX-29Sylvia GarciaMartha Fierro>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-36Rhonda HartBrian Babin99%Rep.96%Rep.