DemocraticIncumbent
Frank Mrvan
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 1st District
Mrvan is very likely to win: Mrvan wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Mrvan (D)
98%
chance of winning
Regnitz (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+14.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mrvan is clearly favored to win: Mrvan wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Mrvan (D)
87%
chance of winning
Regnitz (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+9.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+21
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Barb Regnitz
Porter County commissioner (2023–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $276.8K
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $981.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 8.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 8.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 752,602
- People per km²
- 216
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 27%
- White, no degree
- 45%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 17%
- Black 18%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
322,763 votes · D+8.6✓ Frank J. Mrvan (D)53.4%
Randy Niemeyer (R)44.9%
Dakotah Miskus (L)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
321,891 two-party votes · D+0.4 · D+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2022
213,207 votes · D+5.7✓ Frank J Mrvan (D)52.8%
Jennifer-Ruth Green (R)47.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
326,948 votes · D+16.7✓ Frank J Mrvan (D)56.6%
Mark Leyva (R)40.4%
Michael Strauss (L)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
340,859 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+3.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
245,353 votes · D+30.2✓ Peter J Visclosky (D)65.1%
Mark Leyva (R)34.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
254,593 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Peter J Visclosky (D)81.5%
Donna Dunn (L)18.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
301,407 two-party votes · D+11.8 · D+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.9%
Donald Trump (R)44.1%