DemocraticIncumbent
Susie Lee
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.6M
- From individuals
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $4.8M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Nevada › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada's 3rd District
Lee is clearly favored to win: Lee wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Lee (D)
95%
chance of winning
O'Donnell (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Lee is favored to win: Lee wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Lee (D)
80%
chance of winning
O'Donnell (R)
20%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- D+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Martin O'Donnell
Composer and candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4M
- From individuals
- $362.3K
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 802,090
- People per km²
- 153
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 42%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 10%
- Asian 17%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
372,355 votes · D+2.7✓ Susie Lee (D)51.4%
Drew Johnson (R)48.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
378,371 two-party votes · R+0.7 · D+0.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Kamala Harris (D)49.6%
2022
252,135 votes · D+4.0✓ Susie Lee (D)52.0%
April Becker (R)48.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
417,201 votes · D+3.2✓ Susie Lee (D)48.8%
Dan "big Dan" Rodimer (R)45.8%
Steve Brown (L)3.0%
Ed S Bridges II (I)2.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
356,055 two-party votes · D+6.7 · D+2.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.4%
Donald Trump (R)46.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
286,168 votes · D+9.6✓ Susie Lee (D)51.9%
Danny Tarkanian (R)42.8%
Steve Brown (L)1.6%
David Goossen (—)1.3%
Harry L Vickers (I)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
310,907 votes · D+1.4✓ Jacky Rosen (D)47.2%
Danny Tarkanian (R)46.0%
Warren Markowitz (I)3.7%
David Goossen (I)3.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
259,738 two-party votes · D+7.1 · D+4.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%