DemocraticIncumbent
Lizzie Fletcher
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $309.6K
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 7th District
Fletcher is very likely to win: Fletcher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fletcher (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hale (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fletcher is very likely to win: Fletcher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Fletcher (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hale (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+47
- Partisan lean
- D+26
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Alexander Hale
Consultant
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $106.6K
- From individuals
- $100.5K
- Spent
- $89.7K
- Cash on hand
- $16.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.98 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+26: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 768,587
- People per km²
- 2,375
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 9%of adults
- White 28%
- Hispanic 36%
- Black 17%
- Asian 16%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
244,471 votes · D+22.6✓ Lizzie Fletcher (D)61.3%
Caroline Kane (R)38.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
243,051 two-party votes · D+24.2 · D+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)62.1%
Donald Trump (R)37.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
181,829 votes · D+27.6✓ Lizzie Fletcher (D)63.8%
Johnny Teague (R)36.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
314,125 votes · D+3.4✓ Lizzie Fletcher (D)50.8%
Wesley Hunt (R)47.5%
Shawn Kelly (L)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
290,328 two-party votes · D+32.1 · D+27.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.0%
Donald Trump (R)34.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
243,601 votes · D+5.1✓ Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)52.5%
John Culberson (R)47.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
255,533 votes · R+12.3✓ John Abney Culberson (R)56.2%
James Cargas (D)43.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
205,353 two-party votes · D+33.9 · D+31.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)66.9%
Donald Trump (R)33.1%