DemocraticIncumbent
Greg Landsman
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.5M
- From individuals
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $4.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 1st District
Landsman is clearly favored to win: Landsman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Landsman (D)
95%
chance of winning
Conroy (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+10.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 3in our database
Landsman is clearly favored to win: Landsman wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Landsman (D)
85%
chance of winning
Conroy (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+7.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Eric Conroy
U.S. Air Force veteran and former CIA officer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $572.5K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $474.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.7 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Landsman | Conroy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 509 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | D+8.1 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 509 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+8.1 |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 509 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 | D+8.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 24, 2026.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 799,129
- People per km²
- 286
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 16%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
391,909 votes · D+9.2✓ Greg Landsman (D)54.6%
Orlando Sonza (R)45.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
393,672 two-party votes · R+2.7 · R+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.3%
Kamala Harris (D)48.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
296,474 votes · D+5.5✓ Greg Landsman (D)52.8%
Steve Chabot (R)47.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
385,285 votes · R+7.4✓ Steve Chabot (R)51.8%
Kate Schroder (D)44.6%
Kevin David Kahn (L)3.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
399,527 two-party votes · D+0.1 · R+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
300,866 votes · R+4.5✓ Steve Chabot (R)51.3%
Aftab Pureval (D)46.9%
Dirk Kubala (L)1.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
354,788 votes · R+18.4✓ Steve Chabot (R)59.2%
Michele Young (D)40.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
355,858 two-party votes · R+3.5 · R+5.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.3%