Democratic
Sarah Trone Garriott
State senator from the 14th district (2021–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $7.7M
- From individuals
- $6.9M
- Spent
- $5.7M
- Cash on hand
- $2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Iowa › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa's 3rd District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (81%).
Garriott is clearly favored to win: Garriott wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Garriott (D)
81%
chance of winning
Nunn (R)
19%
- Average margin
- D+5.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 1in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (72%).
Garriott is favored to win: Garriott wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Garriott (D)
72%
chance of winning
Nunn (R)
28%
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.22 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Garriott | Nunn | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6 | D+3.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Mar 14, 2026.
The district
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 816,359
- People per km²
- 29
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
412,905 votes · R+3.8✓ Zachary Nunn (R)51.8%
Lanon Baccam (D)47.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
416,691 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Kamala Harris (D)47.8%
2022
310,913 votes · R+0.7✓ Zach Nunn (R)50.3%
Cynthia Axne (D)49.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
447,947 votes · D+1.4✓ Cynthia Axne (D)48.9%
David Young (R)47.5%
Bryan Jack Holder (L)3.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
414,323 two-party votes · R+0.5 · R+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Joe Biden (D)49.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
356,241 votes · D+2.2✓ Cindy Axne (D)49.3%
David Young (R)47.1%
Bryan Jack Holder (L)2.0%
Mark Elworth Jr (OTH)0.6%
Paul Knupp (G)0.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
390,287 votes · R+14.7✓ David Young (R)53.4%
Jim Mowrer (D)39.7%
Bryan Jack Holder (L)3.9%
Claudia Addy (I)1.6%
Joe Grandanette (I)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
343,988 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.3%