Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 1st District
Top twoProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (98%).
McGuire is very likely to win: McGuire wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McGuire (D)
98%
chance of winning
Gallagher (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (97%).
McGuire is very likely to win: McGuire wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
McGuire (D)
97%
chance of winning
Gallagher (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+18.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Mike McGuire
Former president pro tempore of the California State Senate (2024–2025) from the 2nd district (2014–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $152.6K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
James Gallagher
Incumbent U.S. representative, former Minority Leader of the California Assembly (2022–2025) from the 3rd district (2014–2026)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $959.8K
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $332.9K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 728,495
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 27%
- Black 2%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
318,622 votes · R+30.7✓ Doug Lamalfa (R)65.3%
Rose Penelope Yee (D)34.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
329,129 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.4%
Donald Trump (R)43.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
246,225 votes · R+24.1✓ Doug Lamalfa (R)62.1%
Max Steiner (D)37.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
358,757 votes · R+13.9✓ Doug Lamalfa (R)56.9%
Audrey Denney (D)43.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
359,465 two-party votes · D+18.3 · D+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.1%
Donald Trump (R)40.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
291,594 votes · R+9.8✓ Doug la Malfa (R)54.9%
Audrey Denney (D)45.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
314,036 votes · R+18.1✓ Doug La Malfa (R)59.1%
Jim Reed (D)40.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
296,519 two-party votes · D+14.8 · D+12.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.4%
Donald Trump (R)42.6%