Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 3rd District
Top twoBera is very likely to win: Bera wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bera (D)
99%
chance of winning
Tucker (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bera is very likely to win: Bera wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Bera (D)
96%
chance of winning
Tucker (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+16.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+12
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Ami Bera
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $658K
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.7M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Robb Tucker
Nevada County supervisor (2025–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $294.3K
- From individuals
- $87.5K
- Spent
- $267.6K
- Cash on hand
- $26.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.2 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 771,981
- People per km²
- 83
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 35%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 5%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
421,855 votes · R+10.9✓ Kevin Kiley (R)55.4%
Jessica Morse (D)44.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
353,769 two-party votes · D+10.5 · D+12.0 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.3%
Donald Trump (R)44.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
338,199 votes · R+7.3✓ Kevin Kiley (R)53.6%
Kermit Jones (D)46.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
321,988 votes · D+9.3✓ John Garamendi (D)54.7%
Tamika Hamilton (R)45.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
381,096 two-party votes · D+14.3 · D+9.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.1%
Donald Trump (R)42.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
232,251 votes · D+16.1✓ John Garamendi (D)58.1%
Charlie Schaupp (R)41.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
256,346 votes · D+18.8✓ John Garamendi (D)59.4%
N Eugene Cleek (R)40.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
290,382 two-party votes · D+9.6 · D+7.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.8%
Donald Trump (R)45.2%