Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 1st District
Kingston is clearly favored to win: Kingston wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hollowell wins Nov 3
3%
Runoff Dec 1
6%
Kingston wins Nov 3
91%
Including the runoff: Hollowell 6% · Kingston 94% to win the seat. In a runoff, Kingston wins 55% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+11.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kingston is clearly favored to win: Kingston wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Hollowell wins Nov 3
11%
Runoff Dec 1
11%
Kingston wins Nov 3
78%
Including the runoff: Hollowell 17% · Kingston 83% to win the seat. In a runoff, Kingston wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+8.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Amanda Hollowell
Political organizer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $162.5K
- From individuals
- $129K
- Spent
- $155.6K
- Cash on hand
- $7.4K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Jim Kingston
Insurance salesman and son of former U.S. representative Jack Kingston
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $399.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.59 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.86 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 790,676
- People per km²
- 37
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 56%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 28%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
355,857 votes · R+24.0✓ Earl L. "buddy" Carter (R)62.0%
Patti Hewitt (D)38.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
361,591 two-party votes · R+15.9 · R+14.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Kamala Harris (D)42.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
263,965 votes · R+18.3✓ EARL L âBUDDYâ CARTER (R)59.1%
Wade Herring (D)40.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
324,695 votes · R+16.7✓ Earl L "buddy" Carter (R)58.3%
Joyce Marie Griggs (D)41.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
341,511 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.2%
Joe Biden (D)42.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
250,683 votes · R+15.5✓ Earl L "buddy" Carter (R)57.7%
Lisa M Ring (D)42.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
211,112 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Earl L "buddy" Carter (R)99.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
278,223 two-party votes · R+19.3 · R+21.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.3%