Democratic
Christina Hines
Prosecutor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $2.9M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 10th District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (55% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Hines (D)
55%
chance of winning
Bouchard (R)
45%
- Average margin
- D+0.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Hines (D)
41%
chance of winning
Bouchard (R)
59%
- Average margin
- R+1.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Mike Bouchard Jr.
Army National Guard captain and son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.45 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hines | Jr. | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 45 | 45 | Even | R+5.0 |
| Public Policy Polling for Hines' campaignD-sponsored | Jan 16–Jan 17 | 592 RV | 44 | 42 | D+2 | D+0.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 13, 2026.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 772,951
- People per km²
- 1,235
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 14%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
425,301 votes · R+6.4✓ John James (R)51.1%
Carl J. Marlinga (D)45.0%
Andrea L. Kirby (WCP)2.6%
Mike Saliba (L)1.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
427,258 two-party votes · R+6.7 · R+5.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.3%
Kamala Harris (D)46.7%
2022
326,257 votes · R+0.5✓ John James (R)48.8%
Carl J Marlinga (D)48.3%
Andrea L Kirby (WCP)1.8%
Mike Saliba (L)1.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
409,788 votes · R+32.6✓ Lisa McClain (R)66.3%
Kimberly Bizon (D)33.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
424,394 two-party votes · R+1.0 · R+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Joe Biden (D)49.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
303,064 votes · R+26.6✓ Paul Mitchell (R)60.3%
Kimberly Bizon (D)35.0%
Jeremy Peruski (I)3.7%
Harley Mikkelson (G)0.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
340,983 votes · R+32.3✓ Paul Mitchell (R)63.1%
Frank Accavitti Jr (D)32.3%
Lisa Lane Gioia (L)3.1%
Benjamin Nofs (G)1.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
353,748 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+7.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.2%