DemocraticIncumbent
Kristen McDonald Rivet
Incumbent U.S. representative (2025–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6.8M
- From individuals
- $4.3M
- Spent
- $3.6M
- Cash on hand
- $3.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 8th District
Rivet is clearly favored to win: Rivet wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Rivet (D)
94%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+12.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Rivet is favored to win: Rivet wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Rivet (D)
75%
chance of winning
Smith (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Thomas Smith
Retired engineer (suspended campaign during the primary and endorsed Lemmo)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $547.7K
- From individuals
- $10.9K
- Spent
- $137.1K
- Cash on hand
- $410.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.46 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 767,949
- People per km²
- 121
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 15%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
424,350 votes · D+6.9✓ Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)51.3%
Paul Junge (R)44.6%
Kathy Goodwin (WCP)2.0%
Steve Barcelo (L)1.1%
James Allen Little (CST)0.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
427,202 two-party votes · R+2.0 · R+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Kamala Harris (D)49.0%
2022
335,829 votes · D+10.7✓ Daniel T Kildee (D)53.1%
Paul Junge (R)42.8%
Kathy Goodwin (WCP)2.7%
David Canny (L)1.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
428,344 votes · D+3.7✓ Elissa Slotkin (D)50.9%
Paul Junge (R)47.3%
Joe Hartman (L)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
422,296 two-party votes · D+2.1 · R+2.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.0%
Donald Trump (R)49.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
341,593 votes · D+3.9✓ Elissa Slotkin (D)50.6%
Mike Bishop (R)46.8%
Brian Ellison (L)1.8%
David J Lillis (CST)0.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
366,968 votes · R+17.7✓ Mike Bishop (R)56.0%
Suzanna Shkreli (D)39.2%
Jeff Wood (L)2.6%
Maria Green (G)1.5%
Jeremy Burgess (NLP)0.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
362,133 two-party votes · D+1.1 · R+1.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%