Democratic
Mary Allen
At-large Evansville city councilor (2023–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $466.9K
- From individuals
- $436.4K
- Spent
- $284.1K
- Cash on hand
- $182.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 8th District
Messmer is very likely to win: Messmer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Allen (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Messmer (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+24.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Messmer is very likely to win: Messmer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Allen (D)
1%
chance of winning
Messmer (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+27.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Messmer
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $303.9K
- Spent
- $840.2K
- Cash on hand
- $763.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 753,030
- People per km²
- 35
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 4%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
323,604 votes · R+39.5✓ Mark Messmer (R)68.0%
Erik Hurt (D)29.5%
K. Richard Fitzlaff (L)2.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
326,799 two-party votes · R+36.5 · R+35.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Kamala Harris (D)31.7%
2022
216,040 votes · R+35.2✓ Larry Bucshon (R)65.7%
Ray McCormick (D)31.5%
Andrew Horning (L)2.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
320,617 votes · R+38.3✓ Larry Bucshon (R)66.9%
E Thomasina Marsili (D)29.8%
James D Rodenberger (L)3.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
367,726 two-party votes · R+32.0 · R+36.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.0%
Joe Biden (D)34.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
237,383 votes · R+30.0✓ Larry D Bucshon (R)65.0%
William Tanoos (D)35.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
295,537 votes · R+28.0✓ Larry Bucshon (R)56.6%
Ron Drake (D)31.8%
Larry Buchson (R)7.0%
Andrew Horning (L)4.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
332,008 two-party votes · R+36.0 · R+38.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)32.0%