Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 2nd District
FusionGarbarino is favored to win: Garbarino wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Halpin (D)
23%
chance of winning
Garbarino (R)
77%
- Average margin
- R+4.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Garbarino is favored to win: Garbarino wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Halpin (D)
37%
chance of winning
Garbarino (R)
63%
- Average margin
- R+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Patrick Halpin
Former Suffolk County executive (1988–1991)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $576.6K
- From individuals
- $546.1K
- Spent
- $530.4K
- Cash on hand
- $46.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Andrew Garbarino
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $756.5K
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $3.5M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.09 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.79 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.79 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 702,947
- People per km²
- 541
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 25%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
338,984 votes · R+19.5✓ Andrew R. Garbarino (R)59.8%
Rob Lubin (D)40.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
358,287 two-party votes · R+14.1 · R+12.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.0%
Kamala Harris (D)43.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
249,151 votes · R+21.5✓ Andrew R Garbarino (R)60.7%
Jackie Gordon (D)39.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
335,163 votes · R+7.0✓ Andrew R Garbarino (R)52.9%
Jackie Gordon (D)46.0%
Harry R Burger (G)1.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
361,453 two-party votes · R+2.5 · R+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.2%
Joe Biden (D)48.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
241,171 votes · R+6.2✓ Peter T King (R)53.1%
Liuba Grechen Shirley (D)46.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
292,595 votes · R+24.1✓ Peter T King (R)62.0%
Duwayne Gregory (D)37.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
312,374 two-party votes · R+7.9 · R+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)46.1%