North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Murphy is clearly favored to win: Murphy wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Murphy is favored to win: Murphy wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Former state representative from the 21st district (2019–2023), and candidate for North Carolina's 4th Senate district in 2022 and nominee in 2024
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. representative
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jr. | Murphy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 27–Aug 2 | 600 LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+4.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 2, 2026.
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.