DemocraticIncumbent
Henry Cuellar
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $1.2M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 28th District
Cuellar is clearly favored to win: Cuellar wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Cuellar (D)
90%
chance of winning
Tijerina (R)
10%
- Average margin
- D+10.1
- 80% of outcomes
- Even to D+21
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 3in our database
Cuellar is clearly favored to win: Cuellar wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Cuellar (D)
89%
chance of winning
Tijerina (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+11.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tano Tijerina
Webb County judge (2014–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $809.2K
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $214.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cuellar | Tijerina | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 600 LV | 45 | 34 | D+11 | D+14.4 |
| Pulse Science Decision for Tijerina's campaignR-sponsored | Jun 21–Jun 23 | 400 LV | 38 | 46 | R+8 | R+4.1 |
| Pulse Science Decision for Tijerina's campaignR-sponsored | Jun 21–Jun 23 | 400 LV | 33 | 42 | R+9 | R+4.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 22, 2026.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,703
- People per km²
- 20
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 20%
- White, no degree
- 7%of adults
- White 7%
- Hispanic 91%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 1%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
237,648 votes · D+5.6✓ Henry Cuellar (D)52.8%
Jay Furman (R)47.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
198,197 two-party votes · R+10.4 · R+8.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.2%
Kamala Harris (D)44.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
165,581 votes · D+13.3✓ Henry Cuellar (D)56.7%
Cassy Garcia (R)43.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
235,828 votes · D+19.9✓ Henry Cuellar (D)58.3%
Sandra Whitten (R)39.0%
Bekah Congdon (L)2.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
231,562 two-party votes · D+10.1 · D+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
139,140 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Henry Cuellar (D)84.4%
Arthur Thomas IV (L)15.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
184,442 votes · D+35.8✓ Henry Cuellar (D)66.2%
Zeffen Hardin (R)31.3%
Michael D Cary (G)2.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
181,321 two-party votes · D+36.7 · D+34.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)68.4%
Donald Trump (R)31.6%